woensdag 8 oktober 2014

Extracting Natural Gas and Oil from The North Pole: Who Governs?

As a shareholder of oil company Royal Dutch Shell, commonly known as Shell, I have a special interest in its activities1. One of its activities takes place in the Arctic2. Shell sees this region as a potential source to secure the World from energy supply in the future; “It is estimated that the Arctic holds around 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13% of its yet-to-find oil”. Due to global warming, the icecaps are decreasing. In the next few decades it becomes possible to extract natural gas and oil from the North Pole in the coming decades. Although it can be very profitable for the company to have activities in this region, Shell admits that there are still many economic, environmental and social challenges ahead. Ostroms framework of analysing social-ecological systems (SESs) might help to overcome these challenges.
Fig. 1. Decreasing amount of ice during summer at the North Pool (source: NASA Earth Observatory)

      Because of the multi-disciplinary complexity of these systems, Nobel prize-winner Elinor Ostrom describes a general framework for analysing the sustainability of social-ecological systems where each of these aspects will be taken into account 3. She stated that like natural gas “all humanly used resources are embedded in complex SESs”. Natural gas and oil can be described as common pool resources. These kind of resources are freely available but have a limited quantity. Her framework consists of several subsystems of an SES. Figure 2 gives an overview how the four subsystems at the first level are related. Resources systems describes in which ecological system the activity takes place. In this the case of Shell these are Arctic’s oil and gas fields. Resources units describes what kind of resources are extracted from the resource system. In this case it will be natural gas and oil reserves.

Fig. 2. The core subsystems in a framework for analysing social-ecological systems

The governance system describes if the government or other organizations plays a part in managing and setting rules for the use of the resources. It dependents if the industry itself or governmental interference is needed when it is for the industry cheaper to set out own rules than implementing law given topdown. The North Pole is a unique situation since it is officially no-man’s land. In the last part of this blog, I will elaborate more on that. The user are the actors who are involved in the extraction of oil and natural gas in the Arctic region. Oil companies like Shell and neighbouring states who claim parts as their national territory of the North Pole. But also actors who use the region for other purposes like the native people who might live there. All of these subsystems are interlinked with each other. If Users extract resources from the environment it will have an impact on the resource stock of the resource system.
The most interesting part of the North Pole is that it is officially no-man’s land   although several states are try to prove that the North Pole belongs to their territory. Russia planted a flag of the Russian Federation on the arctic seafloor to claim the North Pole during an expedition in 20074. Today the debate is still going on whether which country has the right to claim the North Pole5. So that it can exploit the resources or the right to license oil and gas companies like Shell. Not only Russia but also Denmark, Canada, the United States and Norway are taking part in this debate. Because state are sovereign, no higher authority exists who can decide which of these state is the legitimate owner of the North Pole. The state have to come to a mutual agreement. But that is very unlikely that will happen. Therefore the United Nation can play a role to mitigate between these states. Especially the commission of the Convention of the law of the Sea6.This commission has the task to designate the legitimate owner. But the problem is that the United States do not recognise this commission as a legally binding body due to its sovereign-state principle.
Fig. 3. A Russian submarine plants a flag on the Artic seabed (Source: Reuters)

      Therefore, It is unlikely this debate will be solved in the near future. Hopefully the need for extra fossil fuels will compensated by renewable energy so that the Artcic region be saved form extraction of its resources. Because of the poor institutionalisation due Arctic issues, the framework of Ostrom is more or less a utopian ideal the practice in the real world. On the other hand, it still gives a good overview what role governance should take in common pool resources in SESs.

1 Low revenues on deposit accounts encouraged me to buy stocks with low-risk but with a high-dividend. Royal Dutch Shell was in my opinion the best option for me.
2 Royal Dutch Shell. 2014. http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/arctic.html (8 October 2014)
3 Ostrom, E. 2009. A General Framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological system. In Science. 24 July. Vol 325: 419-422.
4 National Geographic. 2007. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/08/070802-russia-pole.html (8 October 2014)
5 Johnson. J. 2014.Who Own the North Pole? Debate Heats Up as Climate Change Transforms Artic. 4 April. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-04/who-owns-the-north-pole-debate-heats-up-as-climate-change-transforms-arctic.html (8 October 2014)
6 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/closindx.htm (8 October 2014)

1 opmerking:

  1. Hi Jason,
    This is a very significant example, and I'm really interested in it. You gave really completed explanation of it, and these graphs make it more visual. In addition, with all the documents supporting your article, you managed to make your post rather persuasive. But, I'm not sure if it's advisable, I think you could address a little bit more about how these four subsystems interact and coordinate with each other. I mean you gave clear explanations of each of them, but not enough analysis of their relations, like in the graph, their interactions that make the final outcomes.
    Hope it's useful.

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